The pandemic situation will worsen in Romania. There will be over 2,000 daily cases in four weeks

Valeriu Gheorghiță says that the fourth wave of the COVID epidemic is advancing faster in Romania than initially estimated Photo: Digi24 video capture

The fourth wave of the pandemic in Romania is spreading faster than initially estimated, so that the new predictions of specialists show that in four weeks there will be 2,000 cases per day, compared to 1,500 – 1,600 as initially forecast. This balance will not represent, however, the maximum peak of the current pandemic wave, warned, on Sunday evening, at Digi24, the doctor Valeriu Gheorghiță, the coordinator of the anti-COVID vaccination campaign in Romania.

“People do not understand the real benefits of vaccination and do not perceive the reality we are in at the moment: we are in full pandemic, we are in over 1,000 cases reported every day. Basically, people who do not have any immunity, neither post-disease nor post-vaccination, have the highest risk of becoming infected in the next period “, said Valeriu Gheorghiță commenting on the  Digi24 investigation  which revealed a network that provides false vaccination certificates. ” I could say that this risk is certainly so high that all people – especially in large urban areas – who have no degree of immunity will become infected in the coming months ,” said Valeriu Gheorghiță.

“It is an anticipated thing, it is something we already know”, added Gheorghiță. “What we are looking at now is that in Romania, unfortunately, we see a high mobility and interaction of people, which is combined with a very low compliance with prevention measures. That is why  we do NOT expect the epidemiological evolution to be better in the next period, on the contrary, the situation will worsen  on the background that the Delta variant becomes dominant, including in our country. We see that in the last three months the Delta variant has already reached a share of over 20% of the total viral variants of concern that were detected following the sequencing tests, and following the sequencing performed weekly, over 95-96% of the tests are positive for the Delta variant “, said the military doctor.

More than 2,000 cases in mid-September. This will not be the tip

“We do not expect a good situation. In fact, the re-evaluations of the prediction regarding the epidemiological evolution in Romania show us that so far, the  increase in the number of cases has been faster than what we expected,  as such,  in mid-September we expect to have over 2,000 daily cases , instead of 1,500-1600 as we initially estimated. This estimate is for the next four weeks, but it does not mean that this will be the maximum threshold we will reach, it is the four-week prediction that we can make at the moment “, explained Valeriu Gheorghiţă.

Given that we have a significant number of people who have no degree of immunity, it is very likely that the number of cases will be significantly higher, even if in large urban areas the immunity rate is somewhere around 60 percent, but translated In absolute numbers, it means hundreds of thousands of people who are at risk of getting sick in the next period, the doctor said.

“In the weekly reports,  over 80 percent of new cases are in unvaccinated people . Also, if we look at the number of   registered deaths ,  over 97 percent are in unvaccinated people , the rest being in incompletely vaccinated people, not in people who have a complete vaccination schedule. This is the situation we are experiencing at the moment. If we deny it, if we ignore it, this does not mean that we will not hit this reality sooner or later “, pointed out the coordinator of the national anti-COVID vaccination campaign.

How is the situation now compared to last year. Where the benefits of vaccination are seen

“So, at this point, I can tell you that I looked at the corresponding week in 2020. The amplitude of the number of cases, the average at 7 days, is about 66 percent of the situation in the week we are now in 2020 , so we are practically talking today about a 7-day average of cases of about 780 cases per day, compared to 1,170 as they were reported in the corresponding week of 2020. There were several last year, when I did not have vaccination and it is a benefit that is see, practically. If the average 7-day death toll is currently 15, in the same week last year it was about 45. So, the deaths at the moment would be about 33 percent than they were in the corresponding week last year. Definitely, we have visible benefits, given that the vaccination rate is somewhere at 31 percent of the eligible population resident in Romania, over 12 years of age “, said Valeriu Gheorghiță.

“But this is not enough to limit the increase in the number of cases, because we have seen: cases have increased in countries where the vaccination rate has been very high, but to limit the number of serious cases and the number of patients who they end up in intensive care and the number of deaths “, the doctor underlined.

You May Also Like

More From Author